Food Systems face Crisis as Climate Threatens Global Supply

The global food and drink industry faces mounting pressure as supply chains struggle to build adequate resilience against climate shocks and growing demand. With the sector tasked with feeding 10 billion people by 2050, research from Economist Impact suggests the world's food systems are ill-prepared for the challenges ahead.

Economist Impact's inaugural Resilient Food Systems Index (RFSI) has assessed 60 countries, revealing that no nation demonstrates total resilience in its food supply infrastructure. The research shows a 42-point gap between Portugal and the Congo, representing the most and least resilient food systems globally. Nearly half of the countries assessed scored between 56 and 71 on a 100-point scale, indicating significant room for improvement across the entire sector.

Food and drink supply chains depend on stable weather patterns, controlled temperatures and efficient logistics to deliver products to consumers without waste or quality degradation. However, recent years have brought severe disruption to crops, with extreme weather causing rot and damage to yields. This instability, combined with population growth, means demand has intensified whilst supply chain shocks create increasingly severe impacts on food and drink availability.

Food affordability challenges remain

A major barrier preventing resilient food systems is affordability. According to the index, in 62% of countries the cheapest healthy diet accounts for almost 60% of the poorest household's income. This suggests a lack of affordable and nutritious food accessible to all consumers. The equitable access of nutritious food relies on robust supply and trade networks.

The RFSI found that the 15 largest food exporters achieved an average score of 71. When these suppliers face major shocks, the markets relying on these countries experience disruption. The interconnected nature of global food and drink trade means volatility in key supplier nations ripples around the world, affecting communities far from the source of the disruption.

"The data show food systems are deeply interconnected: when countries implement targeted, coordinated action across key resilience levers, the benefits ripple across entire systems," says Jonathan Birdwell, Global Head of Policy and Insights at Economist Impact.

"But if these interventions fall short or happen in isolation, overall system resilience will deteriorate."

Infrastructure gaps threaten food supply

Food availability depends on strong infrastructure and efficient logistics networks, yet these areas are lagging where they matter most. Transportation and logistics systems scored an average of 56.8, with the index revealing that 13.2% of food is lost before reaching retail and 19% wasted within households. Whilst many countries support agricultural technology, they lack the infrastructure to scale it, creating an inability to deliver system-wide impact across food and drink supply chains.

Food affordability emerged as the strongest performing pillar, meeting an average score of 71.8. However, access to nutritional food showed major inequalities. Food prices in lower-income countries have risen fastest, with a 23.1% increase over the past five years, putting additional strain on vulnerable populations seeking nutritious diets.

Climate adaptation remains critical priority

Climate resilience represents a major limit to food stability, with climate risk responsiveness averaging just 56.4. Despite research in low-emission agriculture and sustainable practices being strong, agriculture-specific efforts to adapt and mitigate risks scored an average of only 34. This reveals a clear gap in translating research into action within the food and drink sector.

"Everyone needs dependable access to nutritious, affordable food," said Brian Sikes, Board Chair and CEO of Cargill. "This research offers valuable insights that can help strengthen the world's food systems. Cargill is proud to do our part to advance this important work, innovating with farmers, customers and partners across our global supply chains to help ensure food moves where it's needed, when it's needed."

To address these vulnerabilities, the index identifies several priorities for the food and drink industry. Advancing affordability alongside access and nutrition through agricultural trade could correlate with dietary diversity, whilst better access to trade can result in lower costs and greater consumer choice. Investing in equitable internet and mobile access, cold chain capacity and transport networks could reduce food loss and expand market access for farmers. Finally, translating innovation into agriculture-specific adaptation and advancing policies could strengthen resilience across food systems globally.