Food Supply Chain Fears Rising Amid Global Disruption

The Q2 2025 CIPS Pulse Survey draws on insights from procurement and supply professionals and shows soaring concerns over short-term and long-term supply chain disruptions.

Unstable geopolitical conditions in the Middle East and evolving US tariff policies add to this anxiety.

Sectors such as fuel, food and shipping predict multiple supply risks and substantial price increases, causing a ripple effect impacting suppliers and consumers alike.

Record-high concerns

CIPS gathered responses from 200 senior procurement and supply chain professionals worldwide, covering sectors like healthcare, banking, manufacturing and government.

These professionals rated their concerns on a scale of one to seven, facilitating CIPS in monitoring shifts in opinions.

The Q1 survey was conducted in March, engaging supply leaders acquainted with sourcing decisions and cost pressures.

The gap between quarterly reports finds concerns exacerbated by recent geopolitical changes.

Dr John Glen, CIPS Economist, comments: “This pulse check clearly indicates the impact of escalating tariffs globally and increased geopolitical tension in the Middle East on procurement managers’ perception of supply chain risk.

“The volatility and uncertainty which has permeated global supply chains is providing unprecedented, in recent times, challenges to procurement professionals.”

When asked about concerns for the upcoming three months, the average score hits 4.57 out of seven, which is an increase from the Q1 average of 4.36, marking the highest result on record.

Concern grows when discussing the next 12 months, with an average score increasing to 5.03 out of seven, as opposed to Q1’s score of 4.91.

Ben Farrell, CEO of CIPS, explains: “Global procurement leaders are operating in uncharted waters. Between geopolitical shocks, tariff upheaval and ongoing price volatility, we’re seeing levels of anxiety we’ve never recorded before. 

“It’s no longer a question of ‘if’ disruption happens; it's about preparing for when and where.”

Prices set to rise

Input prices are projected to rise, with five spending categories forecasting increases of more than 10%. In Q1, only three categories surpassed the 10% concern level.

John adds: “The fact that significant price increases are now appearing in multiple channels within supply chains will put additional pressure on organisations to increase final prices to consumers. 

“This in turn may inhibit the ability of central banks to reduce interest rates in the short term and in doing so inhibit central bank’s ability to stimulate insipid levels of economic growth in Europe and the UK.”

Consumers will likely face increased costs due to input price hikes.

Shipping inflation will have a widespread impact, leading to higher prices for items from furniture to food, while fuel cost spikes might elevate heating and transport expenses.

Grocery inflation risks grow with rising food prices, potentially causing significantly higher prices in stores.

Higher costs and availability problems might affect medicines and chemicals, risking a healthcare crisis.

Ben continues: “We are entering a new era of supply chain risk, where political decisions thousands of miles away directly raise prices at the checkout. 

“From shipping lanes to silicon chips, no category is safe from disruption. Procurement professionals are the economy’s early warning system and this quarter; the alarms are blaring.”

Confidence concerns

The survey questioned respondents about current supply shortages causes, with 53% blaming geopolitical factors.

More than a third (36%) identified the US-China trade conflict as a main factor.

Concerns about inflation dropped from 59% to 41% between Q1 and Q2, showing that procurement leaders face risks beyond price increases.

While procurement leaders are trying to mitigate these risks by diversifying suppliers and insourcing, concerns overshadow confidence. With persistent tariff increases and ongoing conflicts, global supply chains must adapt to uncertainty.